Possible macro-fiscal consequences of COVID-19 in Latin America

May 7, 2020  

By Emilio Pineda, Oscar Valencia and Leandro Andrian. 

The pandemic does not come to the region in good time, the little dynamism of growth in recent years generates uncertainty of the outlook for the future. For 2020, the consensus among analysts expects a drop in output in Latin America and the Caribbean between -2% and -6%, which comparative terms would be deeper contractions than the debt crisis of the eighties (-2.4%) and the international financial crisis (-2.1%). If this materialized, it would be the strongest recession in the last 60 years. 

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